If you’re thinking about selling…

Will my home sell for a good price?

Prices are up. The 3-month average median sale price this winter was $388,000, up 6.2% from $365,000 a year ago. Price per square foot — often a more reliable metric because it adjusts for the mix of homes that happen to sell in a given period — is up 11%, from $223 to $247/sqft.

If we look at 12-month increments, the appreciation is more modest: median sale prices are up about 3% year-over-year, and price per square foot is up about 8%. Either way, values are clearly moving in a positive direction for sellers.

Source: Redfin Data Center. Kenai Peninsula Borough, all residential. Dashed line shows linear trend.

Will my home sell or sit?

Homes are selling. This winter, 149 homes sold across the borough (December through February), up 22% from 122 in the same period last year. If we look at 12-month increments, however, total sales volume is essentially flat (772 vs. 766) — so the winter surge may reflect seasonal timing rather than a broader increase in demand.

In terms of speed, median days on market is trending upward. This winter, the median days on market was 62, up from 52 last winter. Over the trailing 12 months, median DOM was 45, up from 34 in the year prior. That said, the seasonal pattern is a lot stronger than the overall trend. Summer homes routinely sell in 2 weeks, while winter homes often sit for 1–3 months.

When is the best time to list?

April–June. The seasonal pattern is strong. Based on the last four years of data (2022–2025):

• New listings peak in June (159) and bottom out in December (25), steadily descending and ascending in between.
• Homes sell fastest from May to July. Median days on market drops to 14–15 days vs. 24–60 the rest of the year.
• Home sales have a sustained peak from May to October (76–88 sales per month vs. 36–60 the rest of the year).
• Prices peak in June and July ($358K, $351K), with a secondary peak in September and October ($347K, $350K). Prices tend to bottom out in January–March (~$335K).

If you’re considering selling, now is a good time to connect with your agent.

Source: Redfin Data Center. Monthly averages for 2022–2025, Kenai Peninsula Borough, all residential.

Is the market getting better or worse for sellers?

It’s gradually improving. Over the last 12 months, prices have appreciated modestly (~3%) and transaction volume is steady. Homes are taking a bit longer to sell than they were a year ago, but there are no signs of a downturn.

If you’re wondering whether to sell now or wait for conditions to improve further — that’s a question worth thinking through carefully:

• At the current pace of appreciation (~3% per year), waiting 6 months might add roughly $6,000 to the sale price of a $388K home. But that’s not guaranteed — the market could flatten or dip.
• Meanwhile, carrying costs add up: mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance typically run several thousand dollars a month.
• And if you wait past the summer selling window, the seasonal data is clear — you’ll likely face a slower market and fewer buyers until the following spring.

The bottom line: market conditions are favorable and the seasonal window is opening. If you’re ready to sell for personal or financial reasons, the data supports acting on that. But timing the absolute top of a modestly appreciating market is difficult and often not worth the carrying costs of waiting.

How should I price?

In short, ask an agent. For pricing, the aggregate data doesn’t get you very far. This winter, the borough-wide median home sold for $388K, $247 per square foot, and 3% below list — but your home is not a median. To come up with a data-informed list price, we would need to look at recent list and sale prices for comparable homes. Alaska is a non-disclosure state, which means that only licensed real estate agents can access sale prices for every home.

If you’re thinking about buying…

Can I afford to buy a home?

The calculators below are designed to give you a general sense, but it’s best to consult with a financial advisor.

Need an advisor? The Folly can connect you with experienced local advisors.

Should I rent or buy?

The calculator below is designed to give you a general sense, but it’s best to consult with a financial advisor.

If you’re looking at a home near the break-even price, it comes down to non-financial considerations. Owning gives you the freedom to modify your space, protection from rent increases or a landlord deciding to sell, and — for some — a feeling of stability. Renting gives you less responsibility for maintenance, and the ability to relocate more easily.

Is now a good time to buy?

It’s a reasonable time to buy. The Kenai Peninsula is seeing slow, steady price appreciation — about 3% per year on median sale prices and about 8% per year on price per square foot (trailing 12 months vs. year prior).

What that means practically: if you wait a year hoping prices will drop, history suggests they’re more likely to be slightly higher. But the appreciation is modest enough that there’s no urgency to rush into a purchase you’re not ready for. Buy when you find the right home at a price that works for your budget — not because you’re trying to time the market.

When is the best time of year to buy?

There are trade-offs.

• Winter: Fewer homes to choose from, but less competition from other buyers. Homes sell slower and prices tend to be slightly lower.
• Summer: More homes to choose from, but more competition from other buyers. Homes sell faster and prices tend to be slightly higher.

For most buyers, the practical answer is: buy when you find the right home, regardless of season.

How should I bid?

Homes are typically selling for about 97% of their asking price — meaning a small discount from list price is normal. Only about 17% of homes sold above ask this winter. This is not a bidding-war market. The right bidding strategy depends on the home’s popularity and how much you want it, so it’s best to consult with an agent who can pull comps and get a sense for the home’s demand.

How fast do I need to move?

Be prepared to move quickly. In winter, the median home sits for 1–2 months before selling. In the summer, that drops to about 14 days. If you’re planning to buy this spring or summer, be ready to go.

The Big Picture

Zooming out to the trailing 12 months (March 2025 to February 2026) vs. the prior year, the Kenai Peninsula housing market looks like this:

The story is straightforward: gradual, steady appreciation with stable transaction volume. A balanced market growing modestly. For homeowners, your equity is gradually building. For buyers, prices aren’t running away from you, but they’re not coming down either.

We’ll update this report when March data becomes available in mid-to-late April.