October 30, 2025, Submitted by Nicole Lawrence of Seward Properties

As we wrap up the third quarter of real estate in 2025, it’s pretty clear the real estate market across the Kenai Peninsula Borough is continuing to cool off. The numbers are showing what many of us have already been feeling — things are slowing down. Compared to this time last year, year-to-date sales are down, buyers are being more cautious, and homes are sitting on the market longer. That shift became even more noticeable in Q3.

Across the Borough, active listings are down about 3.2% compared to 2024 — not a huge change, but it might make you think inventory is tightening. The real story, though, is on the demand side. Sold listings are down over 6% year-to-date, and that gap has widened in Q3, where closed sales dropped more than 10%. Average prices dipped slightly — down just under 1% — but that small drop is telling, especially after several years of steady gains. Taken together, we’re looking at fewer buyers, slower sales, and more price sensitivity — likely tied to high interest rates and affordability concerns.

City by city, there’s a little variation, but the trend is the same. 

• In Kenai, the number of homes for sale dropped nearly 16%, but that hasn’t kept prices from rising — up over 10% year-over-year. The flip side? The number of homes sold is down 23%, and sales volume is down 15%. So, yes, prices are higher, but homes aren’t moving as fast, and it’s clear that fewer buyers are jumping in.
• Soldotna is still fairly balanced. It’s actually the only major area in the Borough where the number of homes sold has gone up slightly, and days on market have improved a bit, too. But prices have slipped by around 8.6%, and overall sales volume is still down about 6%. That could be an early sign of oversupply, or just a reflection of buyers pushing back on price.
• Homer has slowed down more dramatically. Listings are down about 5%, and homes are now sitting an average of 103 days — up from 65 last year. Sales are down nearly 14%, and prices have flattened out. The average home price is still high — just over $491K — but growth has stalled, and more properties are just sitting there.
• And then there’s Seward, where we’re seeing some of the biggest shifts. Inventory is about the same as last year, but homes are sitting a lot longer — 59 days on average now, compared to just 19 days in 2024. That’s a massive increase. The number of homes sold is down 20%, and overall volume is down 10%. At first glance, average prices are up quite a bit — over 12% — but that bump is mostly due to higher-end, newer homes coming on the market this year. It’s not that the market is surging; it’s just a different type of inventory hitting the MLS compared to last year’s lower-priced sales in places like Dora Way.

All in all, Q3 confirmed what we started to see in Q2 — buyers are pulling back, sellers are adjusting, and the market is rebalancing. Properties that are priced well and move-in ready can still find buyers, but the days of overpricing and getting multiple offers right away seem to be behind us… for the moment.