March 12, 2026, by Allison Sayer for The Copper River Record

http://www.copperriverrecord.net

On February 5, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) announced the

commercial spot shrimp (Pandalus platyceros) fishery on Prince William Sound will not open in 2026. The personal use and subsistence fisheries will open May 1. The pot and season limits were not announced as of February 16.

A presentation was given by Alissa Cole, Fisheries Biologist, Division of Commercial Fisheries, Donald Arthur, Assistant Area Management Biologist, Division of Sport Fish, Martin Schuster, Area Management Biologist, Division of Commercial Fisheries and Brittany Blain-Roth, Area Management Biologist, Division of Sport Fish, Alex Reich, Biometrician, Division of Commercial Fisheries, and staff Katelyn Zonneville and Taylor Cubbage were also in attendance. All staff participated in a question-and-answer session after the presentation.

One bright spot presented by Cole was that the 2025 shift in both the commercial and noncommercial season opening days from April 15 to May 1 greatly reduced the percentage of egg-bearing females taken in the overall harvest – from 36% of the fishery to just 5%. Presumably, the later date gave most females time to release their eggs before being harvested.

Cole shared ADF&G performs an annual survey in October throughout Prince William Sound. This survey dates back to 1992. Staff examine shrimp sex, size, and the presence of eggs to answer questions such as whether new adults are entering the population. Data is also fed into complex statistical models.

As in most fisheries surveys, staff record catch per unit effort (CPUE), or how much marketable shrimp they can catch with a standardized amount of effort. This can give an indication of abundance, especially when measured year after year in a range of locations and when trends across areas are examined.

Staff acknowledged survey data can be affected by weather or issues with gear. However, they also seemed confident the overall trends observed reflected what is really happening.

Arthur explained the department has estimated that without any fishing pressure, the shrimp population would be about 3,000,000 pounds. He described this as the carrying capacity of the ecosystem.

Within the carrying capacity estimate, there are “trigger points” to open or close the personal use and commercial fisheries: currently 40 percent for commercial and 20 percent for noncommercial. ADF&G staff estimate the current population is 36% of the carrying capacity, below the threshold to open the commercial fishery.

In addition to a reduced CPUE in the 2025 survey, another concerning aspect was a decrease in the proportion of large shrimp found in samples. Skewing toward smaller size is often a red flag that something bad is happening to the population – whether it is due to overfishing or some environmental pressure. Since shrimp start their adult lives as male, with the larger individuals becoming female, it also indicates a reduced proportion of

females.

Staff also stated they did not see evidence of as many new, small adult males entering the population in 2025 as they would like to see. During the period between 2000 and 2021, the shrimp population increased overall, with some fluctuations from year to year. During surveys between 2010 and 2020, staff observed all age classes doing well and surviving into the next year, even “dying of old age.”

The population increase came despite an increase in fishing pressure. The number of permits increased from about 700 in 2008 to over 4,000 in 2020. The opening of the Whittier tunnel, bringing Anchorage users to Whittier with increased frequency, also did not hamper the population growth.

The commercial fishery opened in 2010, and the population continued to increase, even exceeding the estimated carrying capacity of Prince William Sound for about ten years.

Staff stated they do not understand why the shrimp were so successful during this period.

After another year of abundance in 2021, the estimated population dropped sharply. Then it seemed to plummet.

There were no members of the public in attendance who testified that their observations were different from overall trends described by ADF&G staff. Public questions were wide-ranging, and most were seeking more details about a particular piece of data or how estimates were obtained. One participant wanted more information about whether point estimates had any confidence intervals, and another questioned whether the ecosystem

“carrying capacity” was truly unchanging over time.

One member of the public wondered whether putting his fishing attention into different areas of the sound could help the population recover, but there did not seem to be a strong recommendation from any staff.

There were also questions about what new limits could look like, including whether individuals could be limited to a certain amount of pounds instead of pots. There is insufficient data on how well shrimp survive after being thrown back, and users have little control over how many shrimp come up in a pot. Therefore, pot limits are preferable over bag limits. Staff suggested this season’s limits will be conservative.

One individual asked whether it was possible trawl fisheries just outside of Prince William Sound could be causing an impact. Staff stated there was not a known effect of these fisheries on shrimp.

I asked whether the apparent smaller percentage of females in the population would lead to lower productivity going into next year. The answer is not completely straightforward. It could be that productivity will be very low. Or, the population could adapt. For example, smaller males could transition to become females if there are fewer females around.

Noncommercial reporting is mandatory at the end of the season, while daily online reporting is encouraged. The commercial shrimp fishery required daily reporting in 2025, with 79 vessels registered.

A member of the public wondered whether mandatory in-season reporting in the noncommercial fishery would help. Blain-Roth stated it would be complex to track thousands of permit holders, and that sport fish managers typically do not have the budget or enforcement tools for management based on in-season reporting. However, she also stated she is open to exploring more in-season management tools for the future, if possible.

This is especially pertinent because the noncommercial shrimp harvest exceeded the guideline harvest level for seven of the past seventeen seasons, despite management using tools such as pot limits.

Staff are also exploring making changes or additions to annual surveys and including commercial fishery CPUE data in future models. Several staff mentioned their future management or research is dependent on the budget. A few days after the meeting, I spoke with Valdez resident David Rentel. Rentel started commercial fishing for shrimp in 1979, and has fished most of the years the fishery has been open since. He said his experience in recent years is consistent with the trends described by managers. “We have seen the numbers go down and the size go down. We’re not getting as many big shrimp.”

Rentel also shared the long view of the shrimp fishery. “When we first started out, it seemed like we had a whole area to ourselves. It was just a few boats, and we could fish as many pots as we wanted, but it was a winter fishery, and there was only so much daylight.” He recalled, “Seining had a downturn and big boats came from other places in the 1980s and put hundreds of pots down – there was no limit.” All of this occurred before the Exxon Valdez oil spill, after which the fishery closed for many years. Regarding the unanswered questions about what drives the shrimp population, Rentel expressed a desire for the Department to have more funding for research.

“They could do better jobs if they could have a budget for it.”

Tsin’aen,

Allison Sayer

Editor, The Copper River Record

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